NUCLEAR PROGRAMME – SOVEREIGN RIGHT

“I think what is happening on the Korean peninsula and in Iran is mutually linked.

It is a matter of great concern for many countries”

–         Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Chairman, Senate of Kazakhstan’s Parliament

 Nuclear programmes in North Korea and Iran, which with Iraq were dubbed the “Axis of Evil” by U.S. President George Bush in 2002, could have major implications for global non-proliferation efforts, particularly in East Asia, and the Middle East.

 North Korea conducted a nuclear test in October 2006, causing grave concern in Japan and South Korea, while Iran’s nuclear programme prompted members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) – joining Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Qatar and Bahrain – to launch a joint nuclear energy development programme.

 These developments, among others, have put added pressure on the Non-Proliferation Treaty at a time when other countries, including the United States, Russia and Britain, are extending their nuclear capabilities.

 “I think what is happening on the Korean peninsula and in Iran is mutually linked. It is a matter of great concern for many countries,” Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Chairman of the Senate of Kazakhstan’s Parliament, said.

 “Kazakhstan insists on the denuclearisation of Asia… We believe we need to draw attention to Kazakhstan’s experience when we renounced our nuclear arsenals.”

 “We obtained guarantees of our security from the permanent members of the UN Security Council. As far as we know DPRK (North Korea) wants a similar assurance,” Tokayev said.

 The previous day, former Iranian President Mohammad Khatami said: “Iran has no nuclear weapons programme… There is no programme for that, only for the legitimate right to have nuclear materials for fuel.”

 Asked if Khatami should be believed, Richard Perle, a former Chairman of the U.S. Defense Policy Board, said: “Of course not. A former president is not in place to make policy decisions. We might be better off is he was president. But he is not.”

 “If Iran acquires nuclear weapons, almost certainly other countries will follow. I think our Israeli friends have reason to be concerned. The Saudis and others in the Gulf have reason to be concerned. And the world has reason to be concerned by a regime whose top spokesman (President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad) says what he does,” Perle said.

 But is the future all bleak? Chung-in Moon, South Korea’s Ambassador for International Security Affairs, said Seoul strongly opposed the DPRK becoming a nuclear state because it could lead to its domination of the Korean peninsula and trigger a new arms race in Asia.

 But he added: “We believe we can solve it in a diplomatic matter.”

 Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-Proliferation at the British-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), did not believe North Korea’s nuclear test would lead to other countries in the region going nuclear because of various U.S. alliances in the region and the U.S. nuclear umbrella for its allies in North-East Asia.

 “If neighbours of Iran have similar alliances, they would not feel the need to have nuclear weapons. Protection is the best form of stopping the expansion of nuclear weapons,” he said.

 Appearing to take a swipe at the “umbrella”, Gennadiy Evstafiyev, Senior Adviser at Russia’s Centre for Policy Studies, said he did not like the word “leadership”, adding: “I think those who want leadership may have other aims”.

 He expressed Russia’s gratitude to China, a leading player in the six-party talks trying to get North Korea to forsake its nuclear weapons programme. He hoped Beijing would become involved in any similar moves involving Iran.

 “I believe the main problem of regional proliferation of nuclear weapons is the issue of regional security… There are inherited regional problems from the Cold War. Iran is a regional problem of concern,” he said.

 Yung Rui, Anchor of the daily “Dialogue” programme on China’s CCTV9, said China “stands firmly for denuclearisation of the Korean peninsula and no nuclear weapons in Iran”.

 “China is involved with over 100 global organisations. It wants to be billed as respectable and is breaking silence gradually and getting involved in discussions that may hurt its own national interests,” he added.

 Israel is among countries, including South Africa, India and Pakistan, that have sought to develop nuclear weapons programmes over the past 30 years by diverting resources from nuclear power programmes.

 Major-General Danny Rothschild, President of Israel’s Centre for Peace and Security, said Israel’s nuclear policy was based on “fuel” issues… “We are not going to be first to introduce nuclear weapons to the Middle East.”

 He agreed that dialogue was important but added: “We have to talk about all issues, not just nuclear issues. We have to deal with all regional partners in the Middle East on all issues… We need to reach peace before we start talking about the proliferation of weapons.”

 Rothschild said Iran was threatening not only Israel but the whole Middle East region. “It is a race that started a year ago while moderate Arab states – Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan and most Gulf countries – decided they wanted a nuclear capability.

 “Why? Because Israel was not threatening them. Now why? Because of Iran? That is the best answer for who is threatening whom in the Middle East.”

 Referring to Iran’s dealings with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Fitzpatrick said there had been a lack of transparency. “If Iran had more transparency in the media and more people to discuss it, we could have greater confidence.”

 Perle said if Iran had a vigorous free press, journalists were allowed to travel to areas where (nuclear) plants were sited and if scientists spoke freely, a crisis might be averted.

 “Even the IAEA has difficulty in travelling to where it wants to go. All this creates an enormous cloud of suspicion,” he added.